Peter Webster, a professor at the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, says:
"The basic problem of the Indian Meteorological Department is that they are mired in the past" .
Mr. Hatwar, of IMD, defends his model, noting that it has accurately gauged the country's average rainfall for most years.
In 2002, 2003, 2004 & 2005 the IMD predicted a near normal rainfall . In '03 and '05 it matched with what actually happened. In '02 and '04 we had drought.
In '06 and '07 , below normal rainfall were predicted and we had near normal and normal. Mumbai got flooded too. in '08 the prediction and actuality merged at near normal. But '09 seems to be way off the mark.
The weatherman's job is not easy. But he may have to devise better methods and models for predictions. With 60 crore farming families, to say the least, looking upto him, he cannot leave anything unturned.