Wednesday, 23 July 2008

THE PHARAONIC TRIP

Easiness or simply my laziness in firing my imagination, prompts me to attempt a travelogue now.
The latest of my trips, of any significance, was to The Land of Pharoas - Egypt
After a few hours of stop over at Muscat I was scheduled to reach Cairo. The break fast menu, on board the airline,being nothing extraordinary, I just gobbled it up and initiated the standard procedures for catching up on my sleep.

OMAN AIR
By around 10 a.m I was in Muscat the Omani Capital. A stroll through the arrival and a climb up the stairs (or escalators - choice available) brought me to the small waiting lounge for the passengers. Traffic was thin, probably being early morning. The overall feel was of a small hotel with its mosaic, glazed tiles, glittering lights and all. Early in the path of human material progression, I should say.

In a corner was the money changer , manned by a tough looking guy who I guess would not have minded bashing you up, incase you happened to pay a lower exchange by mistake. Strangely even after spending some 2-3 hours in the lounge I couldnt find anyone exchanging any currency there. The Omani Riyal I noticed was quoating some where around Rs.110/-.

Not in a mood to exchange any currency, I strolled in to the duty free. They had an assortment of things right from kids toys and chocolates to clothes and other home gadgets. But the major emphasis I felt was on liquor, cigarretes and pefumes - the goods in demand by the immigrant Indian population , returning home on holidays.

The familiar site of the traditional "Mundu" , paying for his purchases at the cash counter, caught my attention. I was thrilled to see the free flowing mundu in an alien land - commendable
ofcourse. As I glanced at up at the departure announcements, the flight to Chennai had initiated check in -probably the reason for the "Mundu" to rush off in a hurry. Intrigued I strolled up to the cashier and asked if he accepted Indian rupees, since that and the USD were the two curriencies I was carrying. He assured me that both were accepted at the duty free, as also in most places in Muscat . No wonder our currency exchanger was swatting flies.

I strolled across to the large french windows that lined the hall. I gazed through them, over the wide expanse of sand and the quiet runway and hangars. SomehowI got the feeling of a country, laid back, easy going - a country, recent in origin, short on history and long on money.

Talking of heritage, I did see some of the artefacts of the early Omani culture, i.e. the original tribal inhabitants of Oman. These were exhibited in the "Art & Crafts shop"in the lobby. "Expensive" was the single all important word missing from the shops name plate. Pure cotton clothes - the gaudy coloured rags, were selling for thousands of Rupees. That was really a cultural shock, I should say.

The onward flight to Cairo was uneventful , except for the "thug-ess" of a stewardess who distictly gave the "dont mess with me " signal , especially to those passengers who were trying to give off a "I ve seen a lot of these" - attitude, when asked to put on the seat belts. Some of those who wished to use the wash room when the seat belt sign was on , were given a training on "libidinal control" by her and strapped on to their seats.


LAND OF PHAROAS
The smell of pyramids and an ancient culture were evident, even as I landed at Cairo International. Unlike in Oman the feel was entirely of a natural civilisation that had evolved over a period of time. The placed smelt of "HISTORY". Being winter , the chill was in the air. But the cold was pleasurable rather than being a harsh one. The Cairo International was in the process of further development/renovation as construction activity was going on. Though smaller than Mumbai International, it was colourfully painted on the outside, an attractive shade of wine red . The marble and granite in place of mosaic and glaze tiles were heartening to note.

The luxurious buses arranged by the tour operator took us through the deserts. We had to go across the city crossing the river Nile to reach our hotels where we were booked in for the trip.


As we left the airport area and entered the suburbs of the city the roads started getting congested with traffic. The slight drizzle, that had started, made the place look dirty. What really brought down my heightened holiday expectations were the innumerable unplastered, moss walled, houses and the apartment like honey comb structures, again unplastered and moss walled, that were seen at the side of the roads. I gazed in dismay, at those unfinished houses in large numbers, with muddy, sloshy lanes separating them. "Under developed", "fourth world", "slums" etc were some of the word that floated around in my mind during that melancholic feeling. Those houses had a different story to tell later.

The ride took us across the Nile in to the deserts once again, with the wide expanse of the white sand lifting up my spirits . The arrival at the hotel was the most welcome thing that could've happened to me then. Though not exactly a jet lag, slight home sickness could be felt, I have to admit. Hence after a strong tea, powered with snacks, I sank in to the fluffy double matress and under the warm blanket. The drizzle continued outside.


Lined up were the light and sound show of Pyraminds in the evening and the tent dinner at the foot hills of the pyramids.

THE TENT DINNER
The siesta continued in the bus ride to the Pyramids, until I was woken up roughly by the suddden revelry that broke out on our arrival there. The revelry was pre-arranged to welcome us, and none of the heroics that we never did , caused it. The tent was a beautiful red and quite in contrast to the white and grey sand.

As Egyptian music flowed, so did the wine and on stage was an Egyptian dance drama. The music was very rythmic and matched our Arabian thoughts. As the grand finale of the programme, was the famed Belly dance. Though show of skin does titillate, its not simply that. The dancers are rigourously groomed as in any other art form , I was told.

As I ventured a bit further in to the darkness shrouded desert, away from the tent, the dark expanse of sand in front did give an eerie thrill. The wind was very strong and cold was biting. The moon came out after a while. Still the dips in the desert were quite invisible even from a few feet away, anyone could hide there- it was trechearous. Some local arabs stopped me from going further out in to the desert, they said "distances are deceptive in the desert", which I realised after I had to walk for almost 25 minutes to reach back, trying to keep the tent in view. Iwas told that the temperature outside was around 2.0 degree centigrade.The tent was a world of warmth.













THE PYRAMIDS OF GIZA

We rode up the hills , up and away from the valley. Metal detectors and a little careless frisking after, I stood beside those massive structures - the Pyramids of Giza. Three in the vicinity of one another. The Wonder -built by king "Cheops", a similar one built by his son and a much smaller one beside that. But in a few kilometers radius in the same desert , I was told that there are more than a thousand pyramids, big and small all put togather.

(The second largest on in the photo is the actual wonder and the bigger pyramid. The visibly largest is smaller and built ona higher ground.)
2,00,000 stones were used to built the Pyramid, the stones at the top weighing around 2.0 tonnes and those at the bottom weighing aound 15.0 tonnes. The stones were brought from the valley. Pulling up the stones to those heights is unimaginable just for one thing - the pulleys were yet to be invented. Sticking them togather was another issue - no cement , no concrete. Walking around the structures took me around 35 minutes. Roughly 3 kms - the base? The Pyramid was built over a period of 30 years. Not that it takes so long. Its because, the common people were involved in building it and not just the slaves. The Nile valley used to be flooded for 3 months in ayear , during which time the people of Egypt came up to built their beoved Pharoah a beautiful abode in heavens - The Pyramid. After the floods they went back to the valley, to their farms.

The pharoahs were buried, along with their treasures and things for their daily use in the after world . But the desert robbers who came later, I was told, did manage to clean up the place leaving just the structures, bereft of the treasures, for the tourists.
Intrigued by the absence of any desendants to the Pharoahs I enquired about the same.

"We are the descendants" - my guide said. Seeing the expression of disbelief on my face he ventured further- "The Pharoahs had more than hundred wives, i.e. publically acknowledged. What to say of the others. So you see..."
"I myself have 3 wives" - he said grinning. He sounded as if he is about to close the deal for acquiring one more.








The Sphinx
I dont know what makes it an awesome figure. There is something about it that draws u towards it. A sort of fearlessness, standing alone there towering above us. Folklores and stories apart - its simply magnificient. Also probabaly its the only real thing which has the face of a Pharoah. Simply put its induces a feeling of power and fear too.












The City
Taxis are all black. The city is full of vehicles but the traffic, though with jams, was more or less orderly. Around 5 million people enter Cairo every day to leave in the evening. Driving all the way into and out of the city. Petrol is aorund 1 Egytpian Pund i.e. INR 8/- around i.e around 1/5 of a US $. At the heart of the city, is the Anwar Sadat memorial - a fitting tribute to one of their modern day presidents whom the people revere.



















A place worth a special mention is the Khan-el-Khalili market which has all that Egypt has to offer to a shopping tourist. Its bustling with activity 24 x 7. All the paraphernalia, from an ancient Pharoanic civilisation - to the modern Egypt are avilable there. Right from the pharoahs war weapons to the belly dancers revealing clothes. Since Iam neither a war hero nor a belly dancer I left the market with a few 'papyrus paintings'. These are beautiful and colourful paintings on Papyrus . Again since Iam not an expert, either on papyrus nor on paintings, my judgements on the quality were based on the looks of the shops and shop keepers. Graver the face of the shop keeper- the more serious the shop keeper and hence more genuine the material. Also the richer the ambience of the shop, the better the quality.

The Nile Cruise

Nile , the longest river in the world and mother to one of the earliest civilisations in the world, supports the Egyptians even now - like a true mother. By feeding them through the tourism revenue . The Egytpians, atleast in Cairo, have constructed some palatial boats to carry the tourists along the river. The cruise lasts a few hours long, with food, drinks, and entertainment provided inhouse. Its certainly worth a ride, if not for the river, then for the lively entertainment.

The music an earthy arabian one , with the Egyptian folk art including belly dancing on display. Food quality though questionable, its an entertainment packed lively trip otherwise.

Though lively for me, the ride must have been monotonous for the artists, for day in and day out 365 days a year they do the same. But , as true proffessionals,the smile never left their face while they performed.

Back to the Pavilion
I once again lay back on the fluffy mattress at my hotel, ruminating over the past few days , gazing out the window through the smoke rising from my cigarette.

A few things came back strongly to me again and again, the Pyramids, the air thick with historical mystery and the heavy scent of tourism in their economy.

As I paid for a few things at the duty free at the airport, I enquired about some other items on the display.

After a brief look at me the man at the counter enquired - " Tourist"?

"Yes" I said

He came around the counter and in all politeness , carefully, showed me the antique pieces one by one which I had enquired about.

He , as all modern Egyptians , or atleast Cairoites, seem to have successfully turned into true tourism proffessionals.

EPILOGUE

The Pharoahs might have have flogged thousands of slaves to death while making the Pyramids. Many of his so called present day desendents and those of the slaves too, have a lot to thank those deeds of the Pharoahs for the bread they break daily.

Saturday, 5 April 2008

Mad for us, Mother for him

Clothes so ragged, eyes so sullen,
Hollowed cheeks say it all,
Unkempt , the soiled hair;
Not for her, anyone to care.

Homeless, a roaming gypsy
A shame for all and to see.
Diseased and worse
The dogs life, of hers

Pass by do I, so do many;
A glance even, not from many.
Pity profuse and sympathy,
From me the man so busy.

The self and proclaimed decency;
The Righteous souls of the society.
Me and others, my fellow beings,
Not for her a place amongt us.

The pavement seat and the filth;
Hands groping, hunger or by habit ?
That tin pot and morsels of food,
Left overs from us, the kindly souls.

Smirk did my lips,
"Mad women", muttered with hiss.
"Burden" said the society,
Not for her any anxiety.

From that dark corner;
Behind the rubbish heap
Crawling and in smiles
The little one.

Rush to her, he did,
As fast as he could.
Sublime and unsupressed,
Joyous and elated.

Ragged but rich;
Filthy but loving.
Mad for us,
But mother for him.

[Bless them O'lord, where ever they are. For those two whom I saw really need that help]

Tuesday, 25 March 2008

STRANGE STATISTICS

IRAQ WAR
>Estimated deployment of 30000 troops and $30bn.
>Actual deployment of 150000 troops and approx $600 bn till now.
>The most liberals estimates of the subprime crisis expect write downs of only $300 - 400 bn.

1907 - 2008
J.Pierpont Morgan rallied the Bankers and Trust institutions in 1907 to withstand the onslaught of recession. The write downs amounted to around $18bn. By coincidence it was J.P.Morgan,the bank, that bailed out Bear stearns in 2008 March.
After a series of rescue measures in 1907 , The Federal Reserve was formed, most prudently, in 1913 as a regulator. Will we see the establishment of another, equally far reaching, institution now. A Federal Mortgage Crisis Emergency Reserve perhaps ?

Thursday, 20 March 2008

SUB PRIME MANAGEMENT

Its interesting to follow the concerted moves by the US Federal Reserve using different measures, monetary as well as the policy measures to combat the spreading sub prime problem. Its a gripping battle. Though I dont understand much of it , its gripping all the same to read about the battle thats on.

When first Ben Bernanke cut the the overnight window rate in last September (2007) it almost went unnoticed, except for the huge upswings in the Indian equity markets and some mumblings in the background about recession , slow down etc, largely it was accepted as a matter of routine monetary policy. Then followed a series of aggressive rate cuts finally resulting in a total of 3% cut in just under 6 months, which is phenomenal by any monetary policy standards.

Even till recently the desperation in the rate cuts were not understood properly, not only by the world but in the US too. This is evident from the statement by President Bush that one (read FED) should not over react.

That was before Bear Stearns caved in.

Until then subprime was yet another new topic of financial management. Reaction and over reaction was a matter of opinion.

The overnight caving in and the subsequent Fed orchestrated (and $30bn guarantee too) buy out , albeit at dirt cheap price, of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan heightened the public sensitivity to the subprime issue. Dramatically instead of cautioning against over reaction, the clamour for aggressive rate cuts was more audible. The sub prime "problem" in the public opinion had become "crisis".
The quick , clean and crisp handling of Bear Stearns issue brought to highlight the maturity of the US financial system a well as the preparedness of the US FED.

The FED was not stopping at that. They had an action plan. A plan for an onslaught on the demon of subprime crisis and also simultaneaously to spur the economy out of a possible recession. It came out with a $168 bn action plan , with a multi pronged approach and not just monetary policy measures, a part of which was used for the JP Morgan take over of Bear Stearns.
One of the recent measures the FED came up with was the capital reduction of the govt. sponsored housing companies, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, from $30 bn to $20bn. The measure is expected to inject an additional $200bn in to the US housing loan market. The plan will assist new home buyers to take up loan (read decrease in non-saleability of US home loan foreclosure auctions) and existing home loan owners to refinance using cheaper motgagaes (read better repayment leading to better saleability of Mortgage Backed Securities).
A few other measures have been initiated as part of the package deal in combating the subprime crisis. The temporary cap on mortgages the company (Fannie & Freddie) can purchase or guaratee in high cost markets have been increased from around $0.42 mn to around $0.75 mn. Also the combined cap on mortgages for both the companies put togather which was at $1.5 trillion has been lifted.
The FED by these measures is trying to induce liquidity in the US housing loan market which has almost but dried up. The measures are not a day early, and as for the US financial institutions we all hope it may be just enough to help them start their climb back to the edge of the subprime pit.
As for the present US FED and Ben Bernanke , the evidence is out that they have emerged from the shadows of the Greenspan era and cut a path for themselves in the books of financial history.

Sunday, 16 March 2008

BEARISH STEARN?

As the story of the global subprime crisis unfolded, last week we yet again found another name to scare us. Bear Stearns the US investment Bank was the latest one to hit the head lines with it facing a sudden cash crunch due to the piling up of unsaleable mortagage backed securities. Fearing the massive possible repercussions in the US finanacial markets especially , a federal Reserve orchestrated move saw JP Morgan, Bear Stearns rival, lend cash to Bear Stearns for 28 days on a secured basis. Has it been bailed out? Is the issue put to rest once and for all?

Probabaly no. The unsaleable papers do not transform to saleable ones in a months time. Hence follow up action can be almost certain from the Fed and JP Morgan is likely to lend a helping hand yet again.

In all probability we may witness a take over of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan. Atleast it seems to be a strong possibility as the heated weekend meetings suggest between Bear Stearns, JP Morgan & JC Flowers , another US bank which may make a bid for parts of the Bear Stearns business as it does not have the where withal to take over the entire business of BS unlike JP Morgan which can.

Its attractive looking from JP Morgan side too. Bear Stearns which was trading at $160 per share last April is at $36 now. In all probability JP Morgan is likely to offer a price not more than $15 per share. What helps them further is that S&P recently down graded BS to "BBB" from "A" ,which is now just above the junk bonds. The down grading further ensured that the market may not touch BS even witha a barging pole making its operations difficult, for a while atleast. Also JP Morgan may not lend much credence to the BS book value of $80 per share. The icing on the cake might probabaly be the swanky BS buliding in New York, much liked by the JP Morgan CEO Jamie Damon, as compared to the austere surroundings at the JP Morgan building around the corner.

Probabaly those who had the hardest bump of all were the BS employees. Not that they will face retrenchment. Infact many of them will be inevitable if JP Morgan is to run the show. The bump is hard simply because they own 25% of BS and most of them have their net worths already eroded significantly. Each one of them must surely be ruing the failure to cash in on time and take early retirement and instead are sprucing up for more hard work ahead.

Yet another set of losers may be in the New york Metro area, where the Highly paid , High Net worth BS employees, including BS CEO Allan Schwartz, will be found with tighter purse strings.

Monday, 10 March 2008

NEW IS GOLD?

The price of crude having held on to its long term support of $88 per barrel, except for a brief period recently, it resumed its move toward its eventual target of $125 per barrel. Tracking the strengthening crude and a weakening USD globally (against all major currencies) gold shot into limelight and crossing $965 an ounce. Not having retraced from there it is still remaining strong.

Crude continues its march, and Ben Bernanke in all likely hood is ready for another round of rate cuts to fuel his economy, which is in the grips of a probabale stagflation.

Is it time we got out of the equity markets and entered gold atleast now? A few indicators may help us make a decision albeit a speculative one at that.

1. To insulate their economies against a dipping dollar some of the Asian countries, the Russians & other petro dollar countries converted some of their reserves into Euro. The Euro Zone saw an inflow of around 200 billion Euros in the first half of 2007.

2. Vladimir Putin has advised the Russian Central Bank to increase gold reserve portion by 10% and other countries may follow.

3. The Asian economies and Petro $ countries are sitting on $6.6 trillion of reserves. A small shift from them in to gold will have telling effect. Will the shift happen?

4. The strengthening rupee in the previous year increased the domestic demand for gold by 72% and India is the largest market for gold. Will the demand be sustained?

5. Demand from Gold ETF are on the rise, as also the demand from Middle East and China too.

6. The supply side of Gold is shrinking as also the demand, as the price rises. The Indian demand for gold fell by around 62% in the 4th quarter of 2007.

7. The global supply is also shrinking due to power problems in China & South Africa and also because the mines are yielding less.

8. Gold is unique in that, almost 90% of the mined gold is still in existence, so they can always be shifted as per the regional demands.

Will the gold move towards the eventual technical targets that some analysts are forecasting i.e from 1200 per gram to almost 4800 per gram on the back of further weakening of USD and rising crude? Or will the US economy start picking up causing strenghtening of the USD thus taking the sheen off Gold prices? Do I sell what I have and make a killing on a right sell call? OR do I accumulate further and make an almost 400% return on again a right call but on the buy side. Do i follow the herd and buy into gold or does it ring alarm bells in me that yet another crash is on its way - this time in gold markets.

Its not my wish to make decisions for u but to remind u that the decisions and also the P/L are entirely yours.

Monday, 28 May 2007

The Dog Trainer.


"Sit " I said . Not quite upto my British english he looked up at me ; ears perked up,and a bit taken aback at the harshness of my tone.
"Sit " I repeated.
"Come again', he seemed to tell me with his expression, quizzical and all.
Not the person to accept defeat so easily and being innovative, i pushed his bottom down & tossed him a biscuit ,just to keep the incentive thing going.
"Sit"- I said again. Bottom pushing and buiscuit throwing followed.
As the session moved on he seemed to put two and two togather and I was gaining in pride watching my Dog Resource Management technique gaining steam.
The training went on. Me the teacher - doing my 10th class and He , a 6 month old puppy.
From then on I used to bask in the glory of a dog trainer ; a first time dog trainer rather and not really understanding the pit falls.
The inexperience was clearly demonstrated and I was put in my place on the day when my friends called on me demanding an exhibition of my Dog training skills.
As they watched intently, "Sit" I commanded. The fingers snapped to emphasise.
Readjusting his tail, and quite oblivious of the audience, he watched my face intently.
A quick glance to my hand and he had formed his conclusions. The rigidity went out from his body. The expectation in his eyes seem to give way to a quizzical expression.
"Sit ? What Shit ? - Bring on the Biscuit Man !!
My friends who had assembled, I felt, were a bit relieved that I had not scaled the peaks of Dog Training skills ahead of them. They walked purposefully out, probably to source a dog at the earliest.
Having presumed that my first attempt as a dog trainer failed miserably, I sulked away in silence.
But then he had taken things a step further. Next time around when he wanted food he just gave a short sharp bark and sat down. To emphasise his hunger he just stood up and sat down again.

He had other qeer habits too.
Every morning when I read the news paper reclining on the easy chair, he used to be right there beside me. News paper meant nothing to him, but come what may he was there every morning. Warming himself by the early morning sun that filtered in to the verandah and lazily gazing over the garden. He had his own way of gathering the daily news.
The sofa had become his throne where he would stretch out luxuriously and where from he would watch over the proceedings in the hall. Especially in times of cricket matches, His barks at times capturing the excitement of some crucial sixers or boundaries. Also at times the frayed nerves of my friends were calmed by Bruno's canine display.

The stray cats around the house were his instruments for daily excersice. The chases were never fruitful but then he kept himself fit by them. It was during the course of watching those cat chases that I realised how straight forward the dogs were and the wiliness of the cats. The dogs in the neighbourhood would hold conferences across the street, scheming against him, but never dared to cross the fence. He often did piss on the fence to show his non-chalance.

Slowly all our family albums had his photos too. Though he ate what ever we ate , my mom did once in a while give a thought to what he liked better or even many a times cooked one dish of his liking. Coconut was one of his favourites. The moment the coconuts were grated , he used to apppear from no where to claim his share.

The family never went out without him and when he could not be taken, one of us remained back and gave him company. Though he used to curl up innumerable times during the day, he was the last to go to bed in the night. If me or my brother went to the night show in the near by theatre, he lay waiting for us. He never actually slept ,so to speak. The slightest noise made his ears turn in every direction to decipher the location and source of the noise. Many a times I was astonished by his wagging tail being a leading indicator of our car arriving almost 5 minutes later.

As I moved from home to hostel our intensity of love was indicated by his luxuriant and drooling licks on my face on my arrival back for vacation. Wild jumps, barks and further licks followed.

Ofcourse our long walks during those times became longer with so much to be updated.

He was brought to our home on his 19th day after birth. He had a small collar then. Looking at his discomfort, I removed the same. From then on he neither had a collar nor a chain. Though he took my words a bit lightly, he was quite obedient to the commands of my parents, especially my mom. After every meal he was in the habit of curling up near her feet , may be just to tell her that he enjoyed the food.

On trips to home from where I worked, I found him his usual self. Jolly and a terror to all moving creatures around him. Me being a little wealthy now, I treated him to some chicken & mutton dishes from the choicest of restaurants, and unlike phantom, I carried them home. I loved the way he used to jump up to my chin to show his delight.

It was during the summer of '99 that I detected the first sign of weaknes in him. It was painful to see him fail to jump up on to the half wall in the verandha. I helped him on to it. He never appreciated it - it was against his nature to be weak.

Bit by bit he lost ground.

In the winter of '99 , a sunday, it was around noon that i received the call. He completed his afternoon meal,I was told, walked up to my mom gave her a lick , stretched out in his favourite corner and left us.

Inspite of the long years inbetween its not unusual I guess, to feel his presence at times and see him quite often in my dreams.

He was quite an unsual chap.



Disclaimer : [Though the writing has figments of truth as always, drawing conclusions from it may be far fetched and Iam sure as regards writing what people are least worried about is truth]